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Development and validation of a coronary risk prediction model for ageing European and US American individuals: a collaborative project of the Rotterdam and Cardiovascular Health Studies

Research Project
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01.04.2010
 - 30.09.2010

We aim to develop and validate prognostic models for the prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) events in individuals of advanced age. The rational of the project is that exisiting risk prediction models for CHD are based on the data of younger popultations (e.g. Framingham or PROCAM models) and that generalizability of these models to elderly subjects is poor. Preventive regimens for risk factor modification (e.g. statins) are currently extended to the ageing population. Initiation of such treatment should, in line with younger subjects, be based on risk stratification which is appropriate for the population of elderly subjects. Within a network of international collaboration, I have access to the data of two large population-based observational cardiovascular cohort studies of elderly subjects, the Rotterdam study (RS) and the US Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). Based on the data of the RS, we will develop gender-specific CHD risk prediction models. In a second step, we will validate the RS-model within the data of the CHS. I.e. predicted 10-year risk of CHD resulting from the RS model will be compared to the observed risks of the CHS data. Good performance and therefore validity of the models is indicated in the case of close agreement between predicted risk based on the development set and observed risk in the validation set. The authorities of the RS and the CHS, as well as the ethic committee of Basel (EKBB) have approved this study. Valid coronary risk prediction in the elderly is of urgent need due to the expansion of (potentially expensive) coronary risk prevention strategies to elderly people.

Members (1)

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Michael Koller

Principal Investigator